TPP, RCEP, AIIB: Shaping a New Political-Economic Order in the Asia-Pacific



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The TPP has become one of the flashpoints in the current American elections. This conference, convened by Economics and Political Science Professor Vinod Aggarwal, analyzes not only this issue but the larger trade relations of which it is a part. Despite repeated efforts to bring the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to a conclusion, little progress has been made in wrapping up the round. In July 2014, a so-called Bali Package that addresses trade facilitation efforts was derailed by a dispute between the U.S. and India, and the Trade Facilitation Agreement was only penned after a compromise in November that year. With these problems in the multilateral trading system, the new trend that we have seen both in the Pacific and the Atlantic is the negotiation of so-called “mega” FTAs—multilateral FTAs that involve a large number of participants across vast distances. The goal of these agreements has been to overcome the “noodle bowl” or “spaghetti bowl” by rationalizing the multiplicity of bilateral FTAs that have been negotiated over the last decade.

In early October 2015, twelve countries in Asia and the Americas concluded the TPP. Alongside the US and Canada are three Latin American countries on the Pacific Rim (Chile, Mexico, and Peru), four Southeast Asian countries (Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam), and three traditional US partners in the region (Australia, Japan, and New Zealand). Yet while concluded by negotiators, the agreement has yet to be ratified. Given a highly partisan election year in the U.S., the TPP has become a hotly contested agreement. For outsiders, such as Taiwan or Korea, the question of how to become a member of an eventually ratified TPP looms large. And since TPP is not the only mega-FTA being negotiated, how this accord will fit with others is of key importance.

The other significant trade agreement being negotiated in the Asia-Pacific region is RCEP, consisting of 16 countries known as the ASEAN+6. This grouping brings together the ten member states of ASEAN, or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), and six of its major regional economic partners (Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea, and New Zealand). It still remains to be seen how this agreement will look in terms of institutional characteristics and also how non-members such as Taiwan and the US might join.

Finally, a different but related development is the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which was a Chinese led initiative. Here, the question of membership also looms large with countries such as the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan not party to the bank.

SCHEDULE

Schedule
Friday, October 21, 2016

9:15 am: Welcoming remarks

Vinod K. Aggarwal, UC Berkeley

9:30 am: Session 1: Mega-FTAs, the AIIB, and the Regional Balance of Power

Chair: Kristi Govella, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Honolulu

Chen-Dong Tso, National Taiwan University
“How Much is FTA Alliance-making? The Impact of TPP on the Washington-Hanoi-Beijing Triangle”

David Kang, University of Southern California
“Forwards or Backwards? A Minimalist American Grand Strategy to Asia in the 21st Century”

Sonia Aggarwal, UCLA
“The Long Game: China and the AIIB”

Cheng-Chwee Kuik, The National University of Malaysia
“AIIB and Southeast Asia's Responses to China's 'Belt and Road' Initiative: Preliminary Observations"

Discussants:
Andrew Reddie, UC Berkeley
Melissa Griffith, UC Berkeley

11:00 am: Coffee break

11:15 am: Session 2: The Political Economy of Mega-FTAs and the AIIB

Chair: Saori Katada, University of Southern California

John Ravenhill, Balsillie School of International Affairs
“The Political Economy of a ‘21st Century’ Trade Agreement: the Trans-Pacific Partnership”

Takashi Terada, Doshisha University, Japan
“Japan and the U.S.-China Power Struggles: Balancing between TPP and AIIB”

Gregory Chin, York University
“One Belt, One Road Initiative: Offsetting TPP and Recasting
Pan-Regional Economic Integration”

Discussants:
Gary Hufbauer, Peterson Institute for International Economics
T. J. Pempel, UC Berkeley

12:45 pm: Lunch break

2:00 pm: Session 3: The Impact of Mega FTAs on Outsiders

Chair: Gary Hufbauer, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Saori Katada, University of Southern California
“The TPP Agreement and the Reaction of Non-Members: A Study of FTA Dominos and Firewalls in the Asia Pacific” (with Mireya Solis)

Chyungly Lee, National Chengchi University
“Reshaping a US-Led Political-Economic Order in the Asia-Pacific? The Relevancy of Non-TPP ASEAN Members”

Heribert Dieter, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
“Discrimination Returns: The Fragmentation of the Trade Regime and Effects on Excluded Countries”

Shaofeng Chen, Peking University
“TPP vs. RCEP: Does Every Road Lead to Rome (FTAAP)?”

Discussants:
Johannes Fritz, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland and UC Berkeley
Philip Rogers, UC Berkeley

3:30 pm: Coffee break

4:00 pm: Session 4: Getting In? Taiwan, Korea, China, India and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Chair: John Ravenhill, Balsillie School of International Affairs

Seungjoo Lee, Chung-Ang University
“Mega FTAs and Economy-Security Nexus: The Case of South Korea”

Tun-jen Cheng, College of William and Mary
“China, TPP and the Liberal International Order”

Da-Nien Liu, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research
“The TPP: The Challenges for Taiwan”

Amitendu Palit, National University of Singapore
“China, India & TPP: Mutually Exclusive, or Potentially Inclusive?”

Discussants:
Kristi Govella, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Honolulu
Melissa Carlson, UC Berkeley

5:45 pm: Concluding Remarks

6:00 pm: Adjourn

Download the schedule here.

ABSTRACTS

Abstracts

Sonia AGGARWAL, UCLA
“The Long Game: China and the AIIB”
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), originally announced as an initiative by the Chinese government in 2013, has now become operational. This paper explores this new China-led effort to create the AIIB by providing contending theoretical approaches to examine the rationale for its creation. Specifically, the paper draws on Realist theory as a baseline and finds three anomalies: one, despite massive foreign exchange reserves, China does not appear to have committed as much to the AIIB as one might have anticipated from a hegemonic state. Two, in terms of voting power, China has been willing to cede power. Three, China has clearly sought to avoid confronting the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), arguing that all of these institutions could plausibly work together. To examine these anomalies, the paper supplements Realist theory with insights from Neoliberal Institutionalist approaches. A key focus of this study is to examine how the AIIB its likely to fit within the existing financial lending institutional architecture in Asia.


Shaofeng CHEN, Peking University, China
“TPP vs. RCEP: Does Every Road Lead to Rome (FTAAP)?”
As two prominent mega free trade areas (FTA) in the making, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have drawn wide attention. Are they likely to be set in motion? Which one is more likely to kick off first? Will they compete with or complement each other? This paper tries to decipher the above puzzles through a comparative analysis of the leading powers’ motives in pushing forward the formation of the two blocks, the perceptions of Washington on China-supported RCEP and the perceptions of Beijing on the US-led TPP, their contents and the rules they follow, and their prospects in the near future. Both schemes run into some difficulties. While the TPP, a strongly geopolitics-driven project, will be mainly constrained by domestic politics, the RCEP, mainly driven by economic logic, will be bothered by international politics. Whether the TPP and the RCEP will enter into a competing or complementary relationship will decisively hinge upon America’s perception of China’s rise, strategic tussles between the two countries, and China’s domestic reform. The intensified geopolitical jostling between the two big powers, if continued, may strangle the likelihood of establishing a FTAAP.


Tun-jen CHENG, College of William and Mary
“China, TPP and the Liberal International Order”
All simulation models suggest that China will be the biggest loser under TPP-12. Nearly all pundits expect the Chinese government to push for concluding the RCEP negotiations in order to mitigate the negative impacts that TPP-12 is likely to impose on China. But China's main offsetting strategy is actually found on the development financing front. Whereas China is most conspicuously absent from the newly-inked TPP, the United States remains the leading odd man out in the China-crafted Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). These two competing geo-economic projects epitomize the strategic rivalry between the two great powers. This paper submits that the TPP, if ratified, has the potential of refurbishing the liberal international order while the AIIB may challenge but not undermine it.


Gregory CHIN, York University
“One Belt, One Road Initiative: Offsetting TPP and Recasting Pan-Regional Economic Integration”
The paper will examine the origins, key agency, and initial pathways of the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) Initiative before analyzing OBOR as a contemporary Chinese economic statecraft that aims to offset, deflect and displace the potential impact of TPP. Next, the paper examines the ways in which OBOR is envisioned, and is being advanced, as a comprehensive modal or mode of pan-regional integration that is different from a TPP- or RCEP-type approach, i.e. a mega-FTA approach. The paper concludes by addressing how to think about, and how to research, the issue of whether, or how likely OBOR is to give rise to a new political-economic order in the region. It does so through a comparative discussion of the prospects of, and the potential for, the OBOR approach to pan-regional integration in Eurasia, as compared to both Japan’s past experiences to encourage regional economic integration in the 1980s and early 1990s, a period when Japan tried to support industrialization and trade integration in East Asia through infrastructure investment and regional production networks, as well as the successful case of the Marshall Plan in post-WWII Europe.


Heribert DIETER, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin
“Discrimination Returns: The Fragmentation of the Trade Regime and Effects on Excluded Countries”
The continuing fragmentation of the trade regime has a number of unwanted side effects. Non-participating economies lose opportunities for enhanced participation in the global economy. Rules of origin – part and parcel of all preferential trade agreements – raise the barriers for economies outside preferential trade agreements. The effects are both economic and political: In order to safeguard origin, companies tend to source inputs from within an FTA, rather than buying inputs from the most-competitive supplier. Politically, the non-discriminatory multilateral trade regime is replaced by preferential agreements that distinguish between friends and foes. Therefore, the creation of mega-regional FTAs has negative effects on both the economic efficiency and the stability of international relations.


David C. KANG, University of Southern California
“Forwards or Backwards? A Minimalist American Grand Strategy to Asia in the 21st Century”
It is perhaps not unfair to characterize the current U.S. grand strategy towards East Asia as backward-looking: emphasizing 1940s-era economic institutions, 1950s-era military defense treaties with three countries, and a Cold War containment military-first posture. Thus, the current U.S. policy tends to be backward-looking, reactive, and defensive; trying to hold on to what it has. But clinging too much to the past means overlooking the ways that the region is changing now. The key pillars of this American grand strategy are over half a century old, and while they have worked very well, it is also clear that they have not solved the remaining issues that face the United States and the region today. Nowhere is America’s backward-looking and yet incomplete and contradictory grand strategy more clear than in its use of the catchphrase “international rules and norms.” Many of the Westphalian rules and norms have worked very well, and are accepted unquestioningly by all states in the region, including China. By far the most unquestioned norm is the respect of sovereign nation-state status. In fact, it is precisely those issues that are not addressed by Westphalian norms and rules that remain potent in East Asia.


Saori N. KATADA, University of Southern California and Mireya SOLÍS, Brookings Institution
“The TPP Agreement and the Reaction of Non-Members; A Study of FTA Dominos and Firewalls in the Asia Pacific”
After five years of difficult negotiation, the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) agreement was reached among 12 Asia Pacific members in October 2015. This mega-FTA covers 40 percent of the global GDP and includes large economies such as the United States and Japan. Despite uncertainty in TPP ratification, the TPP has already triggered reactions from countries such as South Korea and Taiwan that are currently not TPP members as they fear trade and investment diversion, and other exclusion from the high quality rules set by the agreement. Nonetheless, there is a visible contrast among the reactions; some are moving aggressively to join the TPP and others are still solidly opposed to join. What causes these differences? More broadly, what triggers the diffusion of TPP, and where and how do firewalls emerge? By examining the variation in the reaction to the TPP agreement among several non-TPP member countries in Asia including China, this study addresses the question of FTA diffusion.


Cheng-Chwee KUIK, The National University of Malaysia
“AIIB and Southeast Asia’s Responses to China's ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative: Preliminary Observations”
Largely due to proximity and a growing economic-security nexus in China-ASEAN relations amidst increasing maritime tensions in Asia, Southeast Asia has been one of the prioritized regions for China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and its broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since Xi’s announcements of the proposals in 2013. While Southeast Asian states have all joined AIIB, they have responded to BRI differently. Thus far, some states have reacted coolly or maintained a wait-and-see position, whereas others have greeted the initiative in a more receptive manner (although some of the bilateral projects pre-dated BRI). What explains the dissimilar reactions across the similarly situated smaller states? This paper argues that the ASEAN states’ responses are a function of optimizing the “trinity of tradeoffs” – i.e. the continuous struggle to balance prosperity, security, and autonomy – a trilemma typically faced by weaker states in coping with external stimuli. To strike a balance across the downsides associated with the pursuits of the three goals, rational states often see the needs to optimize (not maximize) each of them with a readiness to limit and even sacrifice some desired values at a level acceptable to the respective ruling elite’s own domestic political needs. Fundamentally, the degree and substance of “acceptable” tradeoffs – what benefits to be emphasized, relaxed, or foregone in exchange of what sorts of risk-mitigation – are determined by the elite’s own pathways of legitimation.


Chyungly LEE, National Chengchi University, Taiwan
“Reshaping a US-Led Political-Economic Order in the Asia-Pacific? The Relevancy of Non-TPP ASEAN Members”
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) can be seen as the economic pillar of Obama’s “US Pivot to Asia.” One of the hidden strategic rationales is to rebalance China’s economic leverage over the region in the past decade. As a rising power, China has gradually transformed itself from an institutional follower to an institutional designer. With its influence in RTAs and its new establishment of the AIIB, China seems to redirect geo-economic flows and challenge the US-led political-economic order in the region. TPP is considered a US-led mega FTA with high ambition to maintain, if not resume, the US leadership in the region. Nevertheless, would the commitments of the 12 TPP members be sufficient for the US to reach this goal? What if the rest of the regional members are unwilling or incapable of following those high FTA standards crafted mainly for US interests? This paper will explore these issues from geo-strategic perspectives and argue that the non-TPP members play as critical roles as TPP members do in the U.S. strategy of reshaping the political-economic order in the Asia-Pacific.


Seungjoo LEE, Chung-Ang University, Korea
“Mega FTAs and Economy-Security Nexus: The Case of South Korea”
East Asian countries have taken advantage of FTAs to link economy and security. First, I present four types of economy-security nexus that East Asian countries have adopted: (1) fused linkage, (2) economic pragmatism, (3) security driver, and (4) separation of economy and security. Second, based on this analytical typology, I demonstrate the way in which South Korea links economy and security in its transition from bilateral FTAs to mega FTAs. One anomaly in South Korea’s mega FTA strategy is that South Korea supports not the TPP but the RCEP, although the South Korean government has repeatedly shown its intent to establish itself as a linchpin in the evolving regional architecture. I argue that four factors combine to influence South Korea’s linkage strategy: a competitive dynamic in the FTA race, policy inertia, strategic considerations, and the shadow domestic politics. By tracing the ways in which these four factors interplay in the cases of the TPP and the RCEP, I demonstrate the peculiar nature of South Korea’s linkage strategy in its transition to mega FTAs.


Da-Nien LIU, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, Taiwan
“The TPP: The Challenges for Taiwan”
The main purpose of this paper is to explore the potential challenges for Taiwan to join the TPP. The paper begins by presenting an overview of Taiwan’s participation in regional economic integration. There is a clear trend towards the emergence of major regional blocs. If Taiwan is unable to achieve a breakthrough in terms of securing greater involvement in regional economic integration, its economic competitiveness will steadily erode. The paper then examines the overall economic impact of the TPP on Taiwan. The example of the textiles industry sheds light on the influence of the TPP on the regional industry supply chain. The study finds that, when the TPP comes into effect in the future, the current vertical division of labor whereby Taiwan exports goods to Vietnam which are then used to process items for export from Vietnam to the U.S. is likely to be disrupted by the TPP, which would then have a serious negative impact on Taiwan. The final part of the paper discusses the noneconomic challenges for Taiwan in joining the TPP. We point out that the potentially unstable cross-strait relationship may be another stumbling block for Taiwan's TPP bid.


Amitendu PALIT, National University of Singapore
“China, India & TPP: Mutually Exclusive, or Potentially Inclusive?”
Both China and India are conscious of the TPP’s far-reaching impact on the regional economic and strategic landscapes. The TPP’s ‘effect’ in terms of tackling new aspects of trade governance is getting increasingly pronounced in negotiating both the RCEP, which has several members in common with the TPP, and bilateral trade deals with TPP members (e.g. Australia, Canada, Chile and New Zealand). Their outlooks on the TPP are confused due to unfamiliarity with mega-RTAs entailing WTO-plus issues, convergence of domestic regulations and enforceable standards, and the challenge of sizing the geo-strategic impact of a new bloc of US allies in the Asia-Pacific bound by common economic rules. Various overlapping perspectives – economic, regulatory and political – contribute to China and India’s uncertainties and choices regarding the TPP. This paper examines some of these perspectives for the two countries, which, while being outsiders, would nonetheless be significantly influenced by the TPP. The perceptions are noted in the context of rising strategic complexities in the Asia-Pacific, growth of the parallel regional architecture of the RCEP and uncertainties over the fate of the TPP itself.


John RAVENHILL, Balsillie School of International Affairs
“The Political Economy of a ‘21st Century’ Trade Agreement: the Trans-Pacific Partnership”
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is the first of the ‘Mega FTAs’ to be signed and, if ratified, will create the world’s largest preferential trade area. The negotiators of the TPP aspired to create ‘a next generation transformative agreement’ that would address a new trade agenda focused on regulatory coherence and business facilitation. The expectation was that this agenda would generate a 21st Century trade politics that would be less contentious, at least among business actors, than traditional negotiations on market access. Studies of another Mega FTA under negotiation, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) that has a similar agenda, found unified business support for the agreement domestically and the emergence of transnational business coalitions in support of the agreement. Recent theorizing on trade politics suggests, however, that global value chains (GVCs) that involve vertical intra-industry trade introduce ‘traditional’ distributional issues that will divide business interests domestically—and, in the case of GVCs organized on different geographical bases, internationally as well. This cleavage was evident in the TPP negotiations, unlike those for TTIP, as were other divisions among business—both domestically and across countries—over the sharing of existing rents and of new rents generated by regulatory harmonization.


Takashi TERADA, Doshisha University, Japan
“Japan and the U.S.-China Power Struggles: Balancing between TPP and AIIB”
The current trend of the regional political economy of the Asia-Pacific is the strategic linkage between geo-politics and regional economic institutions, which can be labelled geo-economic regionalism. The upsurge in new economic regionalism, as evident in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), conceivably constitutes a major box of tools in US and Chinese struggles to form a new regional economic order in Asia by imposing sets of norms and rules upon regional economic agendas. To establish their preferred economic standards, the United States and China have commonly employed a coalition-building approach that entails attracting like-minded states into regional institutions and formulating arrangements designed to discourage the other superpower’s involvement. These two strategies pursued by both nations are intended to support their dominance in the standard-setting processes and negate all advantages of the other superpower. This paper aims to explain the reasoning behind Japan’s engagement in the TPP and non-commitment to the AIIB despite persistent requests by China for its participation, by illustrating Japan’s increasingly assertive balancing behavior with the United States vis-à-vis China amidst the ongoing Sino-U.S. power struggle in the region.


Chen-Dong TSO, National Taiwan University
“How Much is FTA Alliance-making? The Impact of TPP on the Washington-Hanoi-Beijing Triangle”
Scholars have debated about the extent to which trade prevents, or mitigates the probability of, wars among nations. TPP is no doubt a case to watch as it brings high hope and tension among members and non-members alike. In light of this long debate, this paper discusses TPP’s impact on the Washington-Hanoi- Beijing triangle. For this purpose, it looks at two broad questions, that is, whether and how TPP strengthens Vietnam's partnership with U.S. and whether and how TPP disturbs Vietnam's relationship with China. A focal point to answer this question is how the TPP-induced economic reform drives the changing dynamics in Vietnam’s leadership. Most observers are watching how the Vietnamese economy dominated by state-owned enterprises undergoes tremendous liberalization to meet the very high standard the TPP embraces. Moreover, Vietnam has moved closer to the U.S. strategically as cooperation between Vietnamese and American militaries continue to develop in quantity and depth. This paper discusses how the TPP-induced economic reform changes the factional politics within VCP leadership and its consequent impact on Vietnam’s position between the two poles of Washington and Beijing.

BIOGRAPHIES

Biographies

Sonia AGGARWAL, UCLA
Sonia Aggarwal is currently a JD-MBA student at the UCLA School of Law and the UCLA Anderson School of Management and holds a BA from Claremont McKenna College in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics. She has worked at Gunderson Dettmer and will start as an Associate at Morrison and Foerster’s San Francisco office in 2017. Sonia has served as an intern at the office of Chief Counsel for Industry and Security at the U.S. Department of Commerce, Houlihan Lokey/Avista Advisory, Kiva Microfunds, the National Foreign Trade Council, and the Global Institute for Asian Regional Integration, Waseda University. Her publications include “Government Bytes: Industrial Policy in the Indian Software Industry,” “Industrial Policy: Theory and Practice,” and “Competitive Framing: Agricultural Protection and Trade Liberalization in the Korea-US FTA Negotiations.”


Vinod AGGARWAL, UC Berkeley
Vinod (Vinnie) Aggarwal is Travers Family Senior Faculty Fellow and Professor in the Department of Political Science, Affiliated Professor at the Haas School of Business, and Director of the Berkeley APEC Study Center at the University of California, Berkeley. He also serves as editor-in-chief of the journal Business and Politics. He has held fellowships from the Brookings Institution, Rockefeller Foundation, Council on Foreign Relations, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and has held a Japan Foundation Abe Fellowship. Aggarwal is a lifetime member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He consults regularly with multinational corporations, governments, and international organizations on globalization and trade issues. The author or editor of 21 books, he has also published over 100 articles and book chapters on the politics of trade and finance. His latest book is Responding to the Rise of China. He received his B.A. from the University of Michigan and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Stanford University.


Melissa CARLSON, UC Berkeley
Melissa Carlson is in the third year of the Political Science PhD program at U.C. Berkeley focusing on International Relations, Comparative Politics, Methods, and the Middle East. Her research interests include the impact of aid in humanitarian crisis response, migration, irregular conflict, public goods provision, and the relationship between state and non-state actors. Currently, Melissa is Project Director at BASC, and is conducting research in conjunction with the Berkeley law school on circumstances under which vulnerable migrants may forgo applying for asylum and exercising their legal rights. Previously, Melissa has conducted extensive research on how host government outsourcing of governance/public goods provision of protracted refugee populations to external actors impact state sovereignty in the Middle East. Prior to beginning her PhD at U.C. Berkeley, Melissa worked as Public Information consultant for the International Organization for Migration Iraq Mission in Amman, Jordan. She holds a B.A. in International Relations and Politics, Philosophy, and Economics from Claremont McKenna College.


Shaofeng CHEN, Peking University, China
Shaofeng Chen received his PhD degree from National University of Singapore in 2007. Before joining PKU, he worked as a research official and visiting research fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. Currently he serves as an editorial board member of Korean Journal of Policy Science. He was a visiting scholar at Hong Kong University in 2014 and New York University in 2015. His research interests cover regional integration in the Asia Pacific, global economic governance, and energy security in Asia. His works have appeared in both English and Chinese journals, such as the China Quarterly, Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, China: An International Journal, Copenhagen Journal of Asian Studies, Policy and Society, Journal of Chinese Political Science, International Politics Quarterly, International Journal of China Studies, American Studies Quarterly, and so on. He concurrently works as a Research Fellow in the Center for International Political Economy, PKU. He is also involved in some government consultation work.


Tun-jen CHENG, College of William and Mary
T.J. Cheng is Class of 1935 Professor in the Department of Government, College of William and Mary. He received his BA from National Taiwan University, MA from University of Waterloo, and PhD from University of California, Berkeley. He has written extensively on political and economic change in East Asia. He is currently completing the Routledge Handbook on East Asian Democratization (co-edited). He was editor-in-chief of the American Asian Review, is the founding editor of Taiwan Journal of Democracy, and is on the editorial board of a number of social science journals on China and Asian studies. His current research projects are China’s monetary policy making, China’s international relations epistemic community, and the trans-pacific trade partnership.


Gregory CHIN, York University
Dr. Gregory Chin is Associate Professor of Political Economy at York University, Canada. He is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) at The Johns Hopkins University SAIS. He is on the International Advisory Board of the journal Review of International Political Economy, and on the Editorial Board of the journal Global Governance. He has published widely on China’s international financial and monetary affairs, Asian regionalism, the BRICS, and global governance reform. He is currently finishing a book manuscript on Renminbi internationalization. Prior to joining York University, Gregory Chin was First Secretary (Development) at the Canadian Embassy in Beijing (2003 to 2006), and from 2000 to 2003, he served in Canada’s Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, and the Canadian International Development Agency.


Heribert DIETER, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin
Heribert Dieter, born 1961, studied political science and economics at the Free University of Berlin and at the Australian National University in Canberra. He holds a doctorate in economics and political science from the Free University of Berlin. He is Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin. Since 2013, he is Visiting Professor for International Political Economy at Zeppelin University, Lake Constance. In addition he is non-resident Senior Fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies (Beijing). His research focuses on international trade and finance. The future of the multilateral trading system and the stability of the international financial system have been key questions in his research. In addition, he has worked on regional integration in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, particularly on supranational financial co-operation. He is currently analyzing the prospects for selective globalization, which enables societies to express their preferences in the design of their countries’ economic policies.


Johannes FRITZ, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland and UC Berkeley
Johannes Fritz is Max Schmidheiny Foundation Research Fellow at the University of St.Gallen’s Swiss Institute for International Economics. He is currently a visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley. His research focuses on international commercial policy and monetary economics. During his fellowship, Johannes Fritz will manage and develop the Global Trade Alert initiative. The Global Trade Alert is an independent network of researchers to monitor governmental policy choices that affect international trade, investment or labor force migration. The findings of this initiative are published in semi-annual reports edited by Prof. Simon Evenett and Johannes Fritz. Fritz has taught history of economic thought at the University of Fribourg. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of St.Gallen. He also received Master’s degrees in International Relations as well as Business Administration from the University of St. Gallen and ESADE Business School, Barcelona.


Kristi GOVELLA, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Honolulu
Kristi Govella is an Associate Professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. Her research examines the intersection of comparative politics and international relations in Asia, particularly focusing on Japanese politics, trade-security linkages, and regional institutions. Her current book project analyzes the influence of foreign multinational enterprises on the Japanese political economy across sectors and across time. She is the co-editor of Linking Trade and Security: Evolving Institutions and Strategies in Asia, Europe, and the United States (2012) and Responding to a Resurgent Russia: Russian Policy and Responses from the European Union and the United States (2011). She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.


Melissa GRIFFITH, UC Berkeley
Melissa K Griffith is Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. She specializes in international relations, U.S. foreign policy, and security cooperation. Her dissertation examines the lifecycle of military alliances and how preferences for cooperation with allies evolve over the lifetime of these institutions. Primary cases include longstanding U.S. post-World War II alliances such as NATO and the U.S. Japan alliance. A concurrent research project, “Great Power Politics in a Global Economy: Origins and Consequences of the TPP and TTIP” co-authored with John Zysman and Richard Steinberg, examines the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) in light of the ‘Balkanizing’ trade system in the post-Cold War period. Melissa holds a B.A. in International Relations from Agnes Scott College (2011) and a M.A. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley (2014).


Gary HUFBAUER, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Gary Clyde Hufbauer has been the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics since 1992. He was on leave as the Maurice R. Greenberg Chair and Director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (1996-98), and he formerly held positions as Marcus Wallenberg Professor of International Finance Diplomacy at Georgetown University (1985–92), deputy director of the International Law Institute at Georgetown University (1979–81); deputy assistant secretary for international trade and investment policy of the US Treasury (1977–79); and director of the international tax staff at the Treasury (1974–76). Dr. Hufbauer holds an A.B from Harvard College, a Ph.D. in economics from King College at Cambridge University, and a J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center. He has written extensively on international trade, investment, and tax issues.


David KANG, University of Southern California
David C. Kang is Professor of International Relations and Business at the University of Southern California, with appointments in both the School of International Relations and the Marshall School of Business. At USC he directs both the Korean Studies Institute and the USC Center for International Studies. Kang’s latest book is East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute (Columbia University Press, 2010). Kang is also author of China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (Columbia University Press, 2007); Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines (Cambridge University Press, 2002), and Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (co-authored with Victor Cha). A regular consultant for U.S. government agencies, Kang has also written opinion pieces in the New York Times, the Financial Times, the Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times, and appears regularly in media such as CNN, BBC, and NPR. He received an A.B. with honors from Stanford University and his Ph.D. from Berkeley.


Saori KATADA, University of Southern California
Saori N. Katada is Associate Professor at the School of International Relations at the University of Southern California. She was an Asian Studies Fellow at the East West Center in Washington in 2015. Katada is the author of Banking on Stability: Japan and the Cross-Pacific Dynamics of International Financial Crisis Management (University of Michigan Press, 2001). She also has six edited and co-edited books in English: Global Governance: Germany and Japan in International System (Ashgate, 2004), Cross Regional Trade Agreements: Understanding Permeated Regionalism in East Asia (Springer, 2008), Competitive Regionalism: FTA Diffusion in the Pacific Rim (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009), and The Global Crisis and East Asian Regionalism (Routledge, 2012), The Financial Statecraft of Emerging Powers: Shield and Sword in Asia and Latin America (Routledge. 2014), Unexpected Outcomes: How Emerging Markets Survived the Global Financial Crisis (Brookings, 2015). She has her Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Political Science) and B.A. from Hitotsubashi University (Tokyo). Before joining USC, she served as a researcher at the World Bank in Washington D.C., and as International Program officer at the UNDP in Mexico City.


Cheng-Chwee KUIK, The National University of Malaysia
Cheng-Chwee Kuik is an associate professor at the Strategic Studies and International Relations Program at the National University of Malaysia (UKM) and concurrently an associate fellow at the Institute of China Studies at the University of Malaya (UM). Previously he was a postdoctoral research associate at the Princeton-Harvard “China and the World” Program. Cheng-Chwee’s research concentrates on three themes: weaker states’ alignment positions and great power politics (with a focus on Asian states' hedging behavior), domestic legitimation and foreign policy (with particular reference to China's and ASEAN states' external policies), as well as the politics of multilateralism and its impact on Asian architecture. His publications have appeared in peer-reviewed journals such as Journal of Contemporary China, Asian Politics and Policy, Chinese Journal of International Politics, Asian Security, East Asian Policy, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi, as well as edited books. He is a co-editor (with Alice Ba and Sueo Sudo) of Institutionalizing East Asia: Mapping and Reconfiguring Regional Cooperation (Routledge 2016). Dr. Kuik serves on the editorial boards of Contemporary Southeast Asia, Australian Journal of International Affairs, and Routledge’s “IR Theory and Practice in Asia” Book Series. He holds a PhD from the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and an M.Litt. from the University of St. Andrews.


Chyungly LEE, National Chengchi University, Taiwan
Chyungly Lee is a Research Fellow at the Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Maryland, College Park. Her publications cover topics in Asia-Pacific comprehensive security, Asia-Pacific regional multilateralism, and conflict prevention in East Asia. Her most recent publications include a book Multilateral Approaches to Asia-Pacific Security Order: Concepts and Practices of Conflict Prevention (Taipei: Shan-Chih Publisher, 2014) and a journal article “ASEAN Centrality’ in Asia-Pacific Economic Architecture,” Prospect Quarterly, (2015). Dr. Lee has been a frequent participant in major regional Track II processes, such as the Council for Security Cooperation in Asia Pacific (CSCAP) and the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC). She currently serves as a supervisory board member of Chinese Taipei PECC, an editorial board member for Asian Politics & Policy, and the executive editor for Chinese Political Science Review. She has been a Visiting Scholar at various institutions, including the Cooperative Monitoring Center, Sandia National Laboratories, USA (Spring 2002); the Center for International Relations, University of British Columbia, Canada (Fall 2002); the Liu Institute for Global Studies, UBC, Canada (2003-2004); and the Stimson Center in Washington DC (Summer 2013). She also teaches in the College of Social Science and College of Communication, National Chengchi University.


Seungjoo LEE, Chung-Ang University, Korea
Seungjoo Lee is Professor of political science and international relations at Chung-Ang University (Seoul, Korea). Professor Lee received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of California at Berkeley. He has worked as an assistant professor in political science at the National University of Singapore and Yonsei University. Lee serves as a Member of Performance Evaluation Committee in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Korea). He is the co-editor of Northeast Asia: Ripe for Integration? (2008), Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific: The Role of Ideas, Interests, and Domestic Institutions (2010), Korea’s Middle Power Diplomacy (2016), and One Belt, One Road: China and Asia (2016). His articles appeared in various journals such as Comparative Political Studies, The Pacific Review, Asian Survey, and Korean Political Science Review. His current research investigates the evolutionary dynamics of institutional balancing in East Asia, regional cooperation in East Asia, and Korea’s middle power diplomacy.


Da-Nien LIU, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research
Dr. Da-Nien Liu is a Research Fellow of the Regional Development Study Center at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), a Taiwan-based international policy think-tank for economic and industry-related research. Between May 2014 and May 2016, Liu served as Deputy Secretary – General of National Security Council at the ROC government. Liu’s major research field and publications cover topics of international trade and investment, industrial economics, multilateral trading systems and regional integration. He has been involved in Taiwan’s World Trade Organization negotiations, and has participated in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings and the formation of Taiwan’s policy on free trade agreements. Dr. Liu earned his doctorate degree in Economics from Cornell University.


Amitendu PALIT, National University of Singapore
Dr. Amitendu Palit is Senior Research Fellow and Research Lead (Trade and Economic Policy) at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) in the National University of Singapore (NUS). He is an economist specializing in international trade policies, regional economic developments, comparative economic studies and political economy of public policies. He worked with the Government of India for several years with his longest span being in the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance, India. Prior to joining ISAS in April 2008, he was with the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), a leading economic policy research institute and think-tank in Delhi. His current research focuses on economic and political implications of India’s integration with the Asia-Pacific region, impact of mega-regional trade agreements, and various determinants of external trade and integration policies of China and India. His books include The Trans Pacific Partnership, China and India: Economic and Political Implications (2014; Routledge UK), China India Economics: Challenges, Competition and Collaboration (2011; Routledge) and Special Economic Zones in India: Myths and Realities (2008; Anthem Press; Co-authored). He has also edited several books and published in peer-reviewed academic journals. He is a columnist for India’s well known financial daily, Financial Express and a regular contributor for the China Daily. He appears regularly as an expert on the BBC, Bloomberg, Channel News Asia, CNBC, Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), Doordarshan (India) and All-India Radio.


T. J. PEMPEL, UC Berkeley
T. J. Pempel is Jack M. Forcey Professor of Political Science in U.C. Berkeley's Department of Political Science which he joined in July 2001. He served as director of the Institute of East Asian Studies from 2002 until 2006. There he held the Il Han New Chair in Asian Studies. Just prior to coming to Berkeley, he was at the University of Washington in Seattle where he was the Boeing Professor of International Studies in the Jackson School of International Studies and an adjunct professor in Political Science. From 1972 to 1991, he was on the faculty at Cornell University; he was also Director of Cornell's East Asia Program. In addition, he has been a faculty member at the University of Colorado and the University of Wisconsin. Professor Pempel's research and teaching focus on comparative politics, political economy, contemporary Japan, and Asian regional ties. His recent books include Remapping East Asia: The Construction of a Region; Regime Shift: Comparative Dynamics of the Japanese Political Economy (both by Cornell University Press); Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia and The Economic-Security Nexus in Northeast Asia (both by Routledge). In 2015, he co-edited a book entitled Two Crises; Different Outcomes (Cornell University Press) which analyzes the negative Asian experience in the 1997-98 crisis and the positive outcome in 2008-09. In addition, he has published over one hundred twenty scholarly articles and chapters in books. Professor Pempel is on the editorial boards of a dozen professional journals, and serves on various committees of the American Political Science Association, the Association for Asian Studies, and the International Studies Association. He is a presidentially-appointed Commissioner on the Japan-U.S. Friendship Commission and is active in the Northeast Asian Cooperation Dialogue. His current research involves Asian adjustments to the rise in global finance and the decline in security bipolarity.


John RAVENHILL, Balsillie School of International Affairs
John Ravenhill is Director of the Balsillie School of International Affairs and Professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo. He was previously Head of the School of Politics and International Relations, Research School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University, where he also co-directed the ANU’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Initiative project. After obtaining his PhD at the University of California, Berkeley, he taught at the University of Virginia and the University of Sydney before joining ANU in 1990. In 2000, he took up the Chair of Politics at the University of Edinburgh for four years. His work has appeared in most of the leading journals of international relations including International Organization, World Politics, Review of International Political Economy and Review of International Studies. For two decades, he co-edited (with James Cotton) the flagship book series of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia in World Affairs. His most recent book, co-edited with Andrew MacIntyre & TJ Pempel, was Crisis as Catalyst: Asia's Dynamic Political Economy (Cornell University Press). He was the founding editor of the Cambridge University Press book series, Cambridge Asia-Pacific Studies, and is on the Editorial Boards of Review of International Political Economy, Pacific Affairs, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Business and Politics, and the Australian Journal of Political Science.


Andrew REDDIE, UC Berkeley
Andrew Reddie is a Ph.D. student in the Charles and Louise Travers Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, specializing in international relations, public policy, and international organizations. His research interests include global institutional design, cybersecurity, and post-conflict reconstruction and development. He holds an M.Phil in International Relations from Oxford University and a B.A. (hons.) in Peace and Conflict Studies from the University of California, Berkeley. He previously served as Managing Editor at the Canadian International Council and at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC.


Philip ROGERS, UC Berkeley
Philip Rogers is a first-year PhD student studying comparative politics with a focus on China. His main interest is China's legal development and the use of law as a tool/catalyst for policy implementation, party legitimization, social reform and economic development in the PRC. Philip holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics, a Master of Public Policy and a Master of Arts in Chinese Studies from the University of Michigan. Before coming to Berkeley, he worked as a paralegal at the Shanghai office of Zhong Lun Law Firm.


Takashi TERADA, Doshisha University, Japan
Takashi Terada is a professor of international relations, Doshisha University, Kyoto, Japan. He received his Ph.D from Australian National University and previously worked in Singapore, Tokyo, Washington D.C. and Warwick. His areas of interest include Asian regionalism/regional integration and Japanese foreign policy.


Chen-Dong TSO, National Taiwan University
Dr. Chen-Dong Tso is professor in the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University. The positions Dr. Tso had held previously include Director of Taiwan Public Governance Research Center, senior advisor to San Francisco-based Asia Foundation, and Executive Director of China Studies Center at National Taiwan University. In addition, he was a visiting fellow at Stimson Center in Washington D.C. in 2012. Dr. Tso’s research interest lies in the areas of International Political Economy, East Asian Regionalism, and Southeast Asia. Dr. Tso obtained his doctorate degree in international studies from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver.

DIRECTIONS

Directions

"TPP, RCEP, AIIB: Shaping a New Political-Economic Order in the Asia-Pacific?" will be held at 180 Doe Library on the central campus.

See section C4 on this large campus map.

Doe Library

To reach Doe Library via the most direct route, enter campus from Telegraph Avenue and Bancroft Way. Walk north through Sproul Plaza and Sather Gate. Doe Library will be the second building on the right after passing through Sather Gate. Turn right and walk uphill (towards the Campanile clock tower) until you come to a ground level entrance on your left. Enter there and walk down the hallway to 180 Doe on the right side of the hallway.


Directions to the Berkeley campus
By BART

If traveling by BART, exit the Richmond-Fremont line at the Berkeley station (not North Berkeley). If going to the campus, walk east up Center Street (towards the hills) one block to the edge of campus. If going to IEAS, walk two blocks north to University Avenue, then one block west (away from the hills) to 1995 University Avenue.

From Interstate 80

To reach the campus by car from Interstate 80, exit at the University Avenue off-ramp in Berkeley. Take University Avenue east (toward the hills) approximately two miles until you reach the campus.

From Highways 24/13

To reach the campus from Highways 24/13, exit 13 at Tunnel Road in Berkeley. Continue on Tunnel Road as it becomes Ashby. Turn right at College Avenue and drive approximately one mile north to Bancroft Way.

Directions to the campus are also available at www.berkeley.edu/ visitors/ traveling.html

Parking

There are various public parking lots and facilities near campus and in downtown Berkeley. This list includes municipal and privately owned parking lots and garages open to the public. Please consult signs for hours and fees prior to entering the facilities.

More information is available on the UC Berkeley Parking and Transportation page.